The third season of Amazon’s series The Lord of the Rings: The Rings of Power is set to premier in the next eight hours. This season is set to be the literal centerpiece of the series, and the release schedule is conspicuously set so that the midpoint of the season (and thus, the entire series) will come on day one. Four episodes come out tomorrow morning, and for the next week we will be sitting at the halfway mark of this long-expected and long-dreaded story. Many of my fellow purists are extremely apprehensive about this series as a whole or have outright rejected it: I choose not to. I choose to judge each season and each episode on its own merits and to provide a critique of a show that has been deeply flawed in some ways and yet incredibly faithful in others. Today I provide a recap of my opinions regarding the first two seasons, as well as my predictions for the third and fourth.

Season One: A Disappointment

The first season was, of course, highly anticipated. Before its release, fans of the source material were already at arms about it, and that has largely not stopped. Time has only made the battle lines clear, but they are battle lines nonetheless. It was because of the extreme excitement caused by the announcement and the marketing that the first season was such a disappointment.

Elrond and Durin’s plotline in Eregion and Khazad-dûm was by far the best for the first four episodes. The friendship between the two as well as the tension due to life expectancy differences was reasonably well written, the acting was strong, and there were no major departures from the lore in the first half of the season. Galadriel in Númenor is a strong second, and while I have complaints regarding the casting of Míriel, it is not the most severe of the show’s failures. The thread is overall good despite several small flaws. The same, however, cannot be said of the final two plotlines: Arondir and Bronwyn in the south, and the Harfoots and Stranger in the east. Neither of these stories have any basis in the source material and must be condemned as wholly fabricated. They are in turn judged by the standard of thematic fidelity and the question of, “could this have plausibly happened, and Tolkien simply chose not to write it down?”. The fact of the matter is that they could not. A courtship between an elf and a woman, tunneling orcs led by a corrupted dark elf, and an Istar falling from the sky several millennia early are simply not things that are believable in Tolkien’s world, and so these portions of the story must be disregarded as apocryphal and false until such time as they should merge with more well-defined storylines.

The second half of the season was less pleasant. Let us recall episodes five, “Partings”, and episode seven, “The Eye”, both of which broke with the source material in drastic ways. The “Roots of Hithaelgir” legend as told by Gil-galad is utter nonsense based on the established history of the Silmarils. By introducing them as the source of mithril, the showrunners make a decision that is irreconcilable with the source if interpreted as fact. With episode seven all but confirming this with root-like visuals in the caves of Khazad-dûm, hope was slim that it could be a mere folk tale written by the ignorant. While adding in a mythical backstory for the series’ most consequential metal may seem harmless, it totally undermines the entire plot of the Silmarillion and gives mithril a magic ability far beyond what can be gathered from the source material.

Despite this, season’s primary flaw remains timeline compression. The showrunners were forced to create a sense of urgency for the elves. The original has the long lifespans of the elves stretching centuries before anything is done about Sauron’s return, but this doesn’t fit with the fact that Tar-Palantir is already king in Númenor. By making the tree of Lindon “sick” they are able to force Gil-galad’s hand and move the plot forward several centuries ahead of schedule, but in so doing they undermine the sense of agelessness and patience the elvish race is designed to represent. This is a thematic misstep, but one that is necessary given the change in medium: one cannot hire a new set of actors for every generation of Men the elf characters interact with. It does cause them irreconcilable problems, but those must be forgiven.

However, after a spectacular finale, “Alloyed”, is able to tie the strings together. After we got our major battle sequence in episode six, we now come to the actual forging of the Rings of Power. Again, the justification and urgency of the craft is fabricated and not realistic but the product is well worth the hand waving it took to get there. The entire sequence between Halbrand / Sauron and Galadriel on the banks of the Glanduin is incredibly well done, and uses the visual medium to its maximum potential in the interpretation of this scene. Viewers can see Galadriel actually tempted by Halbrand’s offer to make her queen, clearly reminiscent of her final temptation in Lothlórien some five thousand years from now (and, as it would be to Tolkien, of Christ’s temptation in the wilderness). The forging of the rings themselves is strong, and while Finrod Felagund’s dagger is not in the source material the justification for its use is plausible, as well as being a strong thematic finish: true creation requires sacrifice.

My conclusion after season one was “better than I expected: miles worse than I’d hoped”. This show had potential.

Season Two: A Marked Improvement

Season two was held to a higher standard now. The showrunners knew what they were doing. Legal disputes with the Estate were over: they knew what had to happen. And despite this they did not succeed in the first six episodes. There was simply too much unnecessary content and not enough of the things that needed to be fleshed out.

Once again, the compressed timeline hurt them. This time, it is the fact that the Balrog in Khazad-dûm does not actually appear until the Third Age. The dwarven kingdom was not involved meaningfully in the War of Elves and Sauron: “The power of Moria endured throughout the Dark Years and the dominion of Sauron, for though Eregion was destroyed and the gates of Moria were shut, the halls of Khazad-dûm were too deep and strong and filled with a people too numerous and valiant for Sauron to conquer from without” (Appendix A, RotK 352). Involving the king Durin III and prince Durin IV (who should be separated by significantly more than a single generation) in this conflict undermines the entire conflict of the Third Age, that is to say, the plot of the Hobbit. Similarly to season one, which undermines the First Age and the Silmarillion, this choice results in significant issues for the future of the story. Needless to say, for any who wish to adapt either the Silmarillion or the events of the earl Third Age will have to do so under the assumption that this show was never made. It is simply not compatible. Many of us optimists hoped that this could form a perfect bridge from the fall of Thangorodrim and the sinking of Beleriand to the Battle of the Last Alliance, where the Jackson films pick up. Unfortunately the changes it has made prohibit any kind of connecting adaptation across all three Ages.

However, in other storylines, the timeline compression works quite well. Take the case of Númenor: the story of Míriel and Pharazôn is done exceptionally well and is not affected negatively by the compression of the timeline at all. While the corruption of Númenor happens over one generation rather than several, the choice allows the viewer to understand Pharazôn much better. By the end of the season he is already King in Armenelos and has essentially purged the nation of the Faithful. While this seems slightly quick to me, the manner in which it is done (especially with Kemen’s attack on Elendil and Valandil’s death) makes up for the speed. It feels fast, but not rushed.

By far the best scenes in both seasons are those between Annatar and Celebrimbor: the two actors are able to bring a terrifying sense of weight and gravity to the entire season, showering the viewer with deep and abiding dread about the fate of the master artisan. The death scene of Celebrimbor was incredible. Annatar’s manipulation of both the smith and Adar is commendable, and I see no major flaw in the writing for this portion of the season. Some have called for Charlie Vickers and Charles Edwards to win various major awards for this performance and I do believe they made a good case. Everything from Annatar’s initial arrival to the elaborate image of a peaceful city was powerful buildup for the gut-punch at the end. When Celebrimbor finally realizes what is going on, the remainder of the season is simply incredible. 5 stars. Now, simply make the whole season this good.

Overall, by virtue of a very strong finish, season two was a marked improvement on its lackluster predecessor, but I cannot give it much praise beyond that. Episodes seven and eight were, with the exception of the Gandalf scenes, very strong. Eregion falls, Adar dies, and Sauron moves into Eridaor. Season two ends with Gil-galad raising his blade to an army of elves gathered below him in a valley soon to be known as Imladris. The story is picking up: we are at war. The rings are forged. Only one remains. Season Three will be the centerpiece of this series and if it is not incredible, the entire thing will fall flat. If the second was to be judged at a higher standard, the third will have to match one higher yet. It can be done. It can be done very well. The question remains, will it?

Looking Ahead

Season Three

Now regarding my concrete predictions for season three. Again, the first day is the midpoint of the show: this is clearly intentional. It takes no great analyst to tell you that the final scene of episode four will carry massive implications for the remainder of the show. My theory is that it will be Sauron’s forging of the One Ring in Orodruin. Once we reach the halfway mark, the namesake of the show will all have been created, and war will truly begin.

It is unfortunately inevitable that Tar-Minastir will not come to save the elves for the simple reason that Tar-Minastir does not exist in this show. The two Númenorean navies coming to Middle Earth ( Minastir’s in 1700 SA, in which Sauron is driven past the Misty Mountains, and Pharazôn’s in 3261 SA, in which Sauron is taken prisoner) will be merged into Ar-Pharazôn’s single attack. 1500 years of colonization and corruption will be compressed into the events at Pelargir, where Kemen has claimed the city for his father. The disappointment of this choice rests in the fact that Minastir’s attack was virtuous, while the one we will see will be entirely selfish. The corruption of Númenor’s elite has already happened. However, I must say it is justified given the generational nature of this plot.

This is likely the arc of the season: the final episode will be that moment in which the elves realize what the King has done, and will see the grave folly of his choice. In taking the Dark Lord home as captive, he has opened himself up to the trickery and lies the Maia is known for. I cannot imagine it coming earlier, as given the speed at which this series chooses to move.

We have been given some hints regarding casting: Celeborn and Khamûl will be in this season. On the first point we have little to go on. Perhaps the building of Lothlórien is coming in this season, alongside Imladris. But the second name confirms what we have long suspected: the Nazgûl will be in this season. The text says that three of the nine are Númenorean, so I’m pointing at Kemen. While I initially thought the same of Theo, his newfound friendship with Isildur seems to be telegraphing that he is the King of the Dead. But I have heard every name from the Dark Wizard to Eärien attributed to a ringwraith so I would be cautious before counting anyone out.

Season Four

While I would have liked to have seen the corruption of Númenor a little bit more slowly, (given the compression), it is likely that the construction of Morgoth’s temple all the way to Pharazôn’s crusade into the west will all be contained in season four. The vital part about this is that the biblical parallel between Pharaoh, Satan, and Pharazôn must be conserved. There is no world in which a faithful adaptation can fail to do this. It is the thematic core of Tolkien’s work, and I must trust that the showrunners understand at least this much. We cannot afford to fall into the trap of a lackluster season with a strong payoff. Now is the time for action, now is the time for fidelity, now is the time for writing that is unapologetically an adaptation of Tolkien’s beliefs and Tolkien’s story, without any modern impositions. This is a Christian story. Let is remain so.

Once Season three ends, I do not expect any further timeline compression. The stage will be set for the last half of the Akallabêth, the Fall of Númenor, and the establishment of the Kingdoms in Exile. This will take up the fourth season, of course, and allow the fifth to finish with the Battle of the Last Alliance. This season draws so deeply from the Akallabêth, and so much material is presented to the point that inventing anything is wholly unnecessary. It is my hope that as much focus as possible is put on Númenor and the Christian parallel, and as little as possible on the east.

Conclusion

Season three must be strong. There is no choice. This is the final opportunity for setup: the ball will reach the top of the hill at the midway point of this season, and after that, it will accelerate all the way until season five, episode eight. The time for meandering plotlines and excursions in the east is over: if the Harfoots and Gandalf do not become involved in the western story, cut them. Time is short. We are at war. Get it right.